Lex Midweek Letter: an injection of confidence
Dear readers, In 2020, the fun-loving cavalier turned into a Christmas-cancelling puritan. But this year UK prime minister Boris Johnson looks set to relax again, presiding over ever-loosening restrictions. On Monday he promised a “one-way road to freedom” as he unveiled a strategy for return to normality by June 21 — midsummer’s day. That’s too slow for some. One MP described the announcement as a “hammer blow”. Some overstretched pubs are still fearful they will have to call time for good. But the timetable is in line with Lex’s prediction back in December. A note titled “Midsummer Gladness” argued that would be the point when vaccination would allow a return to semi-normality. The news certainly provided a boost for the travel sector. Thomas Cook, the online travel company, reported a 60 per cent leap in traffic on its website following the prime minister’s announcement. Europe’s largest tour operator Tui reported a 500 per cent week-on-week rise in bookings for holidays in Greece, Spain and Turkey from July onwards.  Britain was on the cusp of becoming the first country in the world to safely resume international travel and trade at scale, said Heathrow’s chief executive John Holland-Kaye on Wednesday. Understandably he sounds hopeful. The airport, taken private by a consortium led by Ferrovial in a highly leveraged takeover in 2006, made a £2bn loss last year, pushing net debt up almost 6 per cent to £13.1bn. Though it has enough liquidity to last until 2023, it needs passenger numbers to bounce back. Last year, they fell to levels not seen since the 1970s. Anglo-Spanish airline group IAG is similarly in dire need of a recovery in air traffic. Its British Airways subsidiary on Monday announced the deferral of £450m of pension contributions. With its fleet largely grounded, it needs to conserve all the cash it can. But travel to countries that have not got Covid-19 under control will be constrained. Rating agency Moody’s expressed caution, saying the timeline for easing lockdown restrictions could still be derailed by concerns over new Covid-19 variants. Trade body Iata this month warned that travel demand might recover only 13 per cent compared with last year’s very low level. If that happened, airlines would go on burning cash throughout the year.  On a more general point, there is agreement though. There is plenty of pent-up demand. Household bank deposits were up 10 per cent at the end of December compared with a year earlier. This is not evenly spread. More people report that their savings have fallen than risen. Richer households tend not to spend their wealth. Even so, the huge build-up of cash savings — the most liquid subset of household wealth — means the hospitality sector stands to benefit. Many economists expect a Roaring Twenties-style splurge. 
Underpinning the optimism is more evidence of vaccine success. New data from Scotland this week showed a very substantial fall in hospital admissions after the rollout of vaccines. The results in older age groups were “very encouraging”. That is significant because several countries including Germany have so far opted only to use the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine for younger age groups.  The benefits of vaccination are also not evenly spread. It particularly helps face-to-face services worst hit by Covid-19 social-distancing requirements. Vaccination will make less difference to trade-dependent sectors grappling with the complexities of Brexit, the other big drag on the UK’s economic performance. Here, too, a positive story can be told. After four years when many global investors shied away from UK equities exposure, the recent trade deal, however limited, provides some reassurance. Funds are now flowing into domestic stocks. They are seen as relatively cheap and beneficiaries of a tilt towards value stocks. Sterling has rallied sharply this year. Having the fastest vaccine rollout of any large country has given the UK an unusual first-mover advantage, analysts say. Should that continue, expect a degree of exuberance to return. Enjoy the rest of the week, Vanessa Houlder Lex writer
亲爱的读者, 2020年,那个爱玩的骑兵变成了一个取消圣诞节的清教徒。但今年,英国首相鲍里斯•约翰逊(Boris Johnson)似乎又要松弛起来,在他的主持下,疫情封锁的限制不断放松。周一,他承诺了一条“通往自由的单行道”,并公布了在6月21日仲夏之前恢复正常生活的战略。 这对有些人来说这个时间表仍太过漫长了。一位英国国会议员将这一声明形容为“沉重一击”。一些不堪重负的酒吧仍然担心他们将不得不永远停止营业。但时间表和Lex专栏去年12月的预测一致。一份题为“仲夏之喜”的报告指出,接种疫苗将是恢复半正常生活的关键。 解封计划的消息无疑提振了旅游业。在线旅游公司托马斯•库克(Thomas Cook)报告称,在英国首相的声明发布后,其网站的流量猛增了60%。欧洲最大的旅游运营商途美(Tui)报告,从7月份开始,前往希腊、西班牙和土耳其度假的预订量同比增长500%。 希思罗机场首席执行官约翰·霍兰-凯伊(John Holland-Kaye)周三表示,英国即将成为世界上第一个安全恢复大规模国际旅行和贸易的国家。可以理解,他的话里充满希望。2006年,由费罗维尔公司(Ferrovial)牵头的财团通过一项高杠杆收购将该机场私有化。去年,机场亏损20亿英镑,净债务上升近6%至131亿英镑。尽管仍然有足够的流动性维持到2023年,但它需要乘客数量反弹。去年,乘客数量已经跌至上世纪70年代以来的最高水平。 英国-西班牙航空集团IAG同样急需航空运输量的复苏。其子公司英国航空(British Airways)周一宣布推迟缴纳4.5亿英镑的养老金。由于其机队大部分停飞,公司需要尽可能节省现金。 然而前往Covid-19疫情未得到控制的国家的旅行仍然面临限制。评级机构穆迪(Moody 's)表达了谨慎态度,称放松封锁限制的时间表仍可能因对Covid-19病毒新变种的担忧而中断。行业机构国际航空运输协会(Iata)本月警告,与去年极低的水平相比,旅游需求可能仅会恢复13%。如果此话应验,航空公司将在全年继续烧钱。 但在一个更普遍的问题上,各方的意见达成一致:有大量被压抑的需求。去年12月底,家庭银行存款同比增长10%。这并不是平均分布的。更多的人报告说他们的储蓄下降了而不是上升了。较富裕的家庭往往不会花掉他们的财富。即便如此,作为家庭财富中流动性最强的一部分,巨额现金储蓄的积累,意味着酒店行业将受益。许多经济学家预计会出现一种“咆哮的二十年代”式的大肆消费潮。
支撑这种乐观情绪的是疫苗成功的更多佐证。本周来自苏格兰的新数据显示,在推出疫苗后,住院人数大幅下降。老年组的结果“非常鼓舞人心”。这一点意义重大,因为包括德国在内的几个国家,迄今只选择在较年轻的年龄组人群中使用牛津/阿斯利康疫苗。 接种疫苗的好处也并非是平均分配的。它尤其有助于面对面的服务,因为新冠肺炎的社交距离要求,此类服务受到了最严重的冲击。接种疫苗对依赖贸易的行业的影响较小,这些行业正在应对英国退欧的复杂性,这是拖累英国经济的另一个重大因素。 这里也可以讲一个积极的消息。在过去4年里,许多全球投资者都避开了英国股市敞口,但最近的贸易协定提供了一些安慰(尽管效果有限)。 目前,资金正流入英国国内股市。它们被视为相对便宜的股票,受益于投资者倾向于价值型股票。英镑今年大幅上涨。分析人士表示,在所有大国中,疫苗推广速度最快的英国,赋予了其不同寻常的先发优势。如果这种情况继续下去,预计一定程度的繁荣将会回归。 请享受本周剩下的时光。 凡妮莎(Vanessa Houlder) Lex作家
Ukraine to start vaccination campaign as first jabs arrive
Ukraine is poised to start vaccinating its citizens after it received the first batch of Oxford/AstraZeneca doses produced by India’s Serum Institute through licence agreements. “First 500,000 vaccines against Covid-19 [have] arrived," President Volodymyr Zelensky tweeted on Tuesday. "We will start vaccination ASAP.” The delivery of the jabs under the CoviShield brand follows delays that the country of 41m, like many other developing economies, has experienced in securing supplies. Health minister Maksym Stepanov flew to India on Thursday in an attempt to speed up the delivery of 12m doses of Oxford/AstraZeneca and US-developed Novavax vaccines, which were secured this month through UK-headquartered Crown Agents. He said on Monday that while there he negotiated the supply of an additional 5m Novavax doses. He expects a total of 15m of those vaccines for Ukraine. It was not immediately clear how many Oxford/Zeneca shots Ukraine will receive through the agreements. Officials said on Monday that the delivery of 117,000 Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines expected this month under the World Health Organization co-led Covax programme had been delayed until March. Covax is to supply Ukraine with as many as 3.7m Oxford/AstraZeneca doses in the first half of this year, officials said on Tuesday. Kyiv has ruled out purchasing vaccines from Russia, which in 2014 occupied Ukraine's Crimean peninsula and fomented a proxy war in far eastern regions that has claimed nearly 14,000 lives. Deep lockdowns imposed last spring helped Ukraine avoid a first large wave of infections but cases have mounted after restrictions were eased over the summer. The country has registered 1,311,844 cases, including 134,758 active ones and 25,309 deaths.
乌克兰在收到印度血清研究所通过许可协议生产的第一批牛津/阿斯利康剂量后,准备开始为其公民接种疫苗。 "首批50万支针对Covid-19的疫苗[已经]到达,"总统Volodymyr Zelensky周二在推特上说。"我们将尽快开始接种疫苗。" 在CoviShield品牌下的注射剂交付之后,这个拥有4100万人口的国家,像许多其他发展中经济体一样,在确保供应方面经历了延误。 卫生部长Maksym Stepanov周四飞往印度,试图加快牛津/阿斯利康和美国开发的诺瓦克斯疫苗的交付,这些疫苗本月通过总部设在英国的皇冠代理公司获得。 他周一表示,在那里,他就另外500万剂诺瓦克斯疫苗的供应进行了谈判。他预计将为乌克兰提供总计1500万支这些疫苗。 目前还不清楚乌克兰将通过协议获得多少牛津/泽尼卡疫苗。 官员们周一表示,根据世界卫生组织共同主导的Covax计划,预计本月交付11.7万支辉瑞-生物技术疫苗的时间被推迟到3月。 官员周二表示,Covax将在今年上半年向乌克兰提供多达370万支牛津/阿斯利康的疫苗。 基辅已经排除了从俄罗斯购买疫苗的可能性,俄罗斯在2014年占领了乌克兰的克里米亚半岛,并在远东地区煽动了一场代理人战争,导致近1.4万人丧生。 去年春天实施的深度封锁帮助乌克兰避免了第一波大规模的感染,但在夏季放松限制后,病例增加。 该国已登记了1 311 844个病例,其中包括134 758个活动病例和25 309个死亡病例。
Rush to book holidays spurs rally in UK travel stocks
Shares in UK-listed travel companies rallied strongly on Tuesday as government plans to lift coronavirus restrictions spurred hopes that bookings across the industry may finally pick up after a miserable year. The biggest advance was in easyJet, which rallied more than 8 per cent after the low-cost carrier said bookings for flights from the UK had more than quadrupled week on week. On a second day of gains for the sector, British Airways owner IAG and holiday company Tui were each up more than 6 per cent. The market gains came a day after prime minister Boris Johnson set out plans for an easing of lockdown. Non-essential international travel will be subject to review, yet restrictions could be lifted as soon as early summer. "Things are looking brighter due to the efficacy of vaccines and growing support for digital health passes," analysts at Jefferies said in a note, adding they expected domestic travel to be the first to recover. Intercontinental Hotel Group, owner of the Holiday Inn and Crowne Plaza chain, was also up 3.5 per cent as traders looked beyond a $280m annual pre-tax loss to focus on the prospects for a recovery later in the year. Even after the recovery, however, the stocks remain at depressed levels. IAG and easyJet are down about 56 per cent and 29 per cent, respectively, since the start of 2020. "The global airline industry must still rebuild its balance sheet," the Jefferies analysts added.
英国上市旅游公司的股票周二强劲反弹,因为政府计划取消冠状病毒限制,刺激了整个行业的预订量在经历了惨淡的一年后最终回升的希望。 涨幅最大的是easyJet,该公司涨幅超过8%,此前这家低成本航空公司表示,从英国出发的航班预订量每周增加了四倍多。 在该板块上涨的第二天,英国航空的所有者IAG和度假公司Tui分别上涨超过6%。 市场上涨是在首相鲍里斯-约翰逊(Boris Johnson)制定了放松封锁的计划后的第二天。非必要的国际旅行将接受审查,然而限制可能最快在初夏就会取消。 杰富瑞的分析师在一份说明中表示:"由于疫苗的功效和对数字健康证的支持度越来越高,情况看起来更加明朗。"他们预计国内旅行将最先恢复。 连锁假日酒店和皇冠假日酒店的所有者洲际酒店集团也上涨了3.5%,因为交易商将目光从2.8亿美元的年度税前亏损转向关注今年晚些时候的复苏前景。 然而,即使在复苏之后,这些股票仍然处于低迷水平。自2020年开始以来,IAG和easyJet分别下跌了约56%和29%。 "全球航空业仍必须重建其资产负债表,"Jefferies分析师补充道。
Macau gaming shares rise after restrictions lifted for mainland China
Macau gaming stocks soared on the day after the former Portuguese colony lifted all quarantine restrictions for mainland Chinese visitors. Galaxy Entertainment shares closed 8.9 per cent higher while SJM Holdings climbed 7.9 per cent. Sands China gained 7.5 per cent, Melco International went up 6.3 per cent, while MGM China and Wynn Macau each rose about 5 per cent. The territory has opened up to mainland Chinese travellers and analysts have predicted a strong performance during the lunar new year holiday period. “Macau GGR increased significantly during the third week of February,” estimated analysts Vitaly Umansky and Tianjiao Yu from Sanford Bernstein in a note on Monday. “Macau will continue to experience headwinds during the first half of 2021, but we see a strong improvement beginning in the second half as Covid-related travel constraints begin to fall away.”
在前葡萄牙殖民地取消对中国大陆游客的所有检疫限制后,澳门博彩股当天大涨。 银河娱乐股价收盘上涨8.9%,澳博控股上涨7.9%。金沙中国上涨7.5%,新濠国际上涨6.3%,美高梅中国和永利澳门分别上涨约5%。 该地已向中国内地旅客开放,分析师预测农历新年假期期间将有强劲表现。 "澳门GGR在2月第三周显著增加,"Sanford Bernstein的分析师Vitaly Umansky和Tianjiao Yu在周一的一份说明中估计。 "澳门在2021年上半年将继续经历逆风,但我们认为下半年开始会有强劲的改善,因为与Covid相关的旅行限制开始消失。"
EasyJet bookings soar as Johnson plans raise hopes for holidays
EasyJet has seen a surge in bookings since Boris Johnson unveiled his "roadmap" out of lockdown that included rebooting international travel later this year. Bookings for flights from the UK have more than quadrupled week on week, the low-cost carrier said, while its package holiday unit has experienced a more than seven-fold jump in bookings. A UK government taskforce will explore how to safely remove restrictions on mass travel as part of the path out of lockdown announced on Monday, although this is not expected until mid-May at the earliest. The travel industry was shaken by warnings not to book holidays earlier this year, and has broadly welcome the UK government’s plan. "The prime minister’s address has provided a much-needed boost in confidence for so many of our customers in the UK," said easyJet’s chief executive Johan Lundgren.
自从鲍里斯-约翰逊(Boris Johnson)公布了摆脱封锁的 "路线图",其中包括今年晚些时候重启国际旅行以来,EasyJet的预订量激增。 这家低成本航空公司表示,来自英国的航班预订量每周增加了四倍多,而其套餐度假部门的预订量则增长了七倍多。 英国政府的一个工作组将探讨如何安全地取消对大众旅游的限制,作为周一宣布的摆脱封锁路径的一部分,不过预计最早要到5月中旬才能实现。 今年早些时候,旅游行业受到不要预订假期的警告的震动,并对英国政府的计划表示广泛欢迎。 "首相的讲话为我们在英国的众多客户提供了急需的信心支持,"easyJet的首席执行官Johan Lundgren说。
Nigeria's Covid count could be far higher than official tally, survey finds
Nigeria's Covid-19 case count could be in the millions rather than the official tally that puts it in the tens of thousands, a survey by a national public health institute has found. The seroprevalance of 10,000 people in four states found that one in five of those tested have been infected. For Lagos, Nigeria's biggest city, the findings from the Nigerian Centre for Disease Control suggest as many as 4m people have contracted the virus, compared with an official tally of just 54,000. The survey indicates that the "majority of sampled population are susceptible to the virus infection, which highlights [the] need for vaccines”, the NCDC director Chikwe Ihekweazu tweeted late on Monday. Nigeria has recorded roughly 1,800 coronavirus-related deaths. Nigeria's drugs regulator recently approved the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine and the country has secured millions of doses through the African Union and the World Health Organization-backed Covax facility. But, as in much of sub-Saharan Africa, the first deliveries have yet to arrive.
一家国家公共卫生机构的调查发现,尼日利亚的Covid-19病例数可能有数百万,而不是官方统计的数万。 对4个州1万人的血清流行情况进行调查发现,被检测者中五分之一的人已经被感染。 对于尼日利亚最大的城市拉各斯,尼日利亚疾病控制中心的调查结果显示,有多达400万人感染了该病毒,而官方统计只有5.4万人。 调查显示,"大多数抽样人口容易感染病毒,这突出了[疫苗]的需求",NCDC主任Chikwe Ihekweazu周一晚些时候在推特上发布了消息。 尼日利亚已经记录了大约1,800名冠状病毒相关的死亡。 尼日利亚的药品监管机构最近批准了牛津/阿斯利康疫苗,该国已通过非洲联盟和世界卫生组织支持的Covax设施获得了数百万剂疫苗。 但是,与撒哈拉以南非洲大部分地区一样,第一批疫苗尚未运抵。
UK unemployment rises as lockdown takes hold
The UK labour market was all but frozen at the end of the year, with unemployment edging up and a previous pick-up in hiring stalling as the surge in Covid-19 infections put reopening on hold. The jobless rate rose to 5.1 per cent in the three months to December, a rise of 0.4 percentage points from the previous quarter and in line with expectations, official statistics showed on Tuesday. The employment rate of 75 per cent was 1.5 percentage points lower than a year earlier, with 541,000 fewer people in employment. The figures suggest that the extension of the government’s furlough scheme has helped to limit redundancies and stabilise the labour market, while keeping it in a state of suspension. They will reinforce calls from business and unions for support to be extended well after the reopening of the economy begins to lessen the risk of a further surge in job losses. “The government will need to provide ongoing help,” said Tej Parikh, chief economist at the Institute of Directors. "The Budget next week needs to provide a bridge for businesses to begin the process of rescaling and rehiring." The headline unemployment rate does not reflect the true extent of slack in the labour market. Real-time payroll data collected by HM Revenue & Customs suggest that despite small increases over the last two months, there are 726,000 fewer employee jobs in the UK than there were last February before the pandemic hit, a fall of 2.5 per cent. The biggest drop in payrolled employees has been among 18-24 year olds
英国劳动力市场在年底全部冻结,失业率微升,之前的招聘回升也因Covid-19感染病例激增而停滞不前。 周二官方统计数据显示,截至12月的三个月,失业率升至5.1%,较上季上升0.4个百分点,符合预期。就业率为75%,比上年同期低1.5个百分点,就业人数减少54.1万人。 这些数据表明,政府延长休假计划有助于限制裁员,稳定劳动力市场,同时使其处于暂停状态。这些数据将加强企业和工会的呼吁,要求在经济开始重新开放后,将支持的时间延长,以降低失业率进一步激增的风险。 "政府将需要提供持续的帮助,"董事学会首席经济学家Tej Parikh表示。"下周的预算案需要为企业提供一个桥梁,以开始重新调整规模和重新招聘的过程。" 头条失业率并不能反映劳动力市场的真实松弛程度。 英国税务及海关总署收集的实时薪资数据显示,尽管过去两个月有小幅增长,但英国的雇员工作岗位比去年2月疫情发生前减少了72.6万个,降幅为2.5%。其中,18-24岁的受薪员工降幅最大。
Frasers Group warns of £100m charge as lockdown bites
弗拉瑟斯集团警告说,禁售令带来的1亿英镑费用-|-弗雷泽集团(fraser Group)警告称,防范禁闭会带来1亿英镑的费用-|-Frasers Group警告称,锁定禁令将导致1亿英镑的费用
Frasers Group has put investors in the UK retailer on notice over a potential impairment charge of more than £100m as lockdown restrictions on high streets drag on. The group behind Sports Direct and Evans Cycles, as well as the eponymous department store chain, said it anticipated taking a “material” non-cash accounting hit on the value of freehold properties and other assets. It comes a day after the UK government laid down plans for a “cautious” approach to easing lockdown, under which non-essential shops in England will not reopen until April 12 at the earliest. The company, run by billionaire Mike Ashley, cited “the length of the current lockdown, potential systemic changes to consumer behaviour and the risk of further restrictions in future”.
Frasers集团已经向英国零售商的投资者发出通知,由于对高街的封锁限制拖累,可能会有超过1亿英镑的减值费用。 该集团背后的Sports Direct和Evans Cycles以及同名连锁百货公司表示,预计将对永久产权物业和其他资产的价值造成 "重大 "非现金会计冲击。 此前一天,英国政府制定了 "谨慎 "的放松封锁计划,根据该计划,英国的非必要商店最早要到4月12日才会重新开业。 亿万富翁迈克-阿什利(Mike Ashley)经营的公司以 "当前锁店时间长、消费者行为可能发生系统性变化以及未来进一步限制的风险 "为由。
Hancock urges England to ‘pull together’ to ensure swift path out of lockdown
汉考克敦促英格兰 "齐心协力 "确保迅速走出封锁的道路-|-汉考克敦促英国“齐心协力”,确保迅速摆脱封锁-|-汉考克敦促英格兰“齐心协力”,以确保迅速摆脱封锁
The UK health secretary insisted the government’s path out of lockdown is “irreversible” and added that if everybody pulled together England could emerge from the latest restrictions as swiftly as possible. “We are absolutely determined to come out of this as safely and as fast as possible,” Matt Hancock said, “but no faster.” He was speaking the day after prime minister Boris Johnson laid out his four-step plan out of the latest restriction measures that have closed hairdressers, bars, non-essential businesses and schools. The government stands ready to do “whatever it takes” to protect livelihoods and businesses, Hancock told Sky News on Tuesday. The UK prime minister said on Monday the “end really is in sight” as he outlined his plans to end all Covid-19 restrictions by mid-June. Chancellor Rishi Sunak, meanwhile, is preparing in his Budget next week to extend emergency support measures until the summer. He is expected to include measures to protect jobs and help businesses through weeks or even months of further disruption. “It’s very, very important that we can see the impact of one step before taking the next,” Hancock said on Tuesday, adding that it is a “judgment of how much of what we can lift and at what moment”. “If everybody responds and pulls together,” he added, “we can see the light at the end of the tunnel. The best way to get there is to keep abiding by the rules.”
英国卫生大臣坚持认为政府的脱锁之路是 "不可逆转的",并补充说,如果大家团结一致,英格兰可以尽快摆脱最新的限制。 "我们绝对有决心尽可能安全和快速地走出困境,"马特-汉考克说,"但不会更快。" 他是在首相鲍里斯-约翰逊(Boris Johnson)阐述他的四步计划后的第二天发言的,这些最新的限制措施已经关闭了理发店、酒吧、非必要的企业和学校。 汉考克周二告诉天空新闻,政府随时准备 "不惜一切代价 "保护民生和企业。 英国首相周一表示,"末日真的在望",他概述了在6月中旬前结束所有Covid-19限制的计划。与此同时,大法官苏纳克(Rishi Sunak)正准备在下周的预算案中延长紧急支持措施至夏季。预计他将包括保护就业和帮助企业度过数周甚至数月的进一步混乱的措施。 "在采取下一步措施之前,我们可以看到一步的影响,这是非常非常重要的,"汉考克周二表示,并补充说,这是一个 "判断我们可以解除多少,在什么时刻解除 "的问题。 "如果每个人都响应并团结起来,"他补充说,"我们可以看到隧道尽头的光。到达那里的最好方法是继续遵守规则。"
Indian bond yields ascend on investor fears over borrowing plans
Indian bond yields have jumped higher as investors fret over the government’s borrowing plans aimed at supporting an economic recovery from the pandemic. The yield on the 10-year Indian government bond rose to a six month high this week, touching 6.2 per cent. India has substantially increased its borrowing plans in order to help revive its economy from a steep coronavirus-induced slump. The government said it will borrow Rs12tn ($165.8bn) in the financial year starting April. The move in Indian bond yields has mirrored a rise in US Treasury yields, but analysts say it has been pushed higher by uncertainty over whether the government will be able to manage its ambitious borrowing targets for the coming year. “The market is not convinced,” said Suman Chowdhury, an analyst at Acuité Ratings. The government’s targets “will be difficult to absorb”, he added. The increase contributed to a 2 per cent fall in the benchmark Sensex equities index on Monday, although it drifted higher on Tuesday. The government is also budgeting a fiscal deficit of 6.8 per cent of GDP for the coming year. The government said however that it has laid out a “fiscal glide path” that will see the deficit cut to about 4.5 per cent by the 2025-26 financial year. Chowdhury said that investors were sceptical. “They believe the fiscal deficit may also be higher than what the government is talking about,” he said.
印度公债收益率跳涨,因投资者对政府旨在支持经济从疫情中复苏的借款计划感到担忧。 10年期印度政府债券收益率本周升至六个月高位,触及6.2%。 印度大幅增加了借贷计划,以帮助其经济从冠状病毒引起的急剧下滑中复苏。政府表示,将在4月开始的财政年度借入120亿卢比(1658亿美元)。 印度债券收益率的走势反映了美国国债收益率的上升,但分析师表示,由于政府是否能够管理其未来一年雄心勃勃的借款目标的不确定性,印度债券收益率被推高。 "市场并不相信,"Acuité Ratings的分析师Suman Chowdhury表示。他补充道,政府的目标 "将难以消化"。 涨幅导致基准Sensex股票指数周一下跌2%,不过周二漂高。 政府还预算来年的财政赤字为GDP的6.8%。不过政府表示,已经制定了一条 "财政滑行路径",到2025-26财年,赤字将降至4.5%左右。 Chowdhury表示,投资者对此持怀疑态度。"他们认为财政赤字也可能比政府所说的要高,"他说。
IHG loses $280m in its 'most challenging year'
洲际酒店集团 "最具挑战的一年 "亏损2.8亿美元-|-洲际酒店“最具挑战性的一年”亏损2.8亿美元-|-IHG在其“最具挑战性的一年”中失去了280万美元
Intercontinental Hotel Group, owner of Holiday Inn and Crowne Plaza hotels, has warned that the difficulties of the “most challenging year” in its history have stretched into 2021 as new strains of coronavirus force countries to close borders and limit travel. Results on Tuesday showed revenues across the FTSE 100 group fell 48 per cent to $2.4bn in the year to the end of December 2020 while its earnings per share more than halved from 210 cents to 143 cents. It swung from a pre-tax profit of $542m to a loss of $280m. Revenue per available room - the hotel industry’s preferred performance metric - was still far below historic levels in the fourth quarter, it said. China, where a hard suppression of the virus has allowed greater easing of restrictions, had the best performance but the so-called revpar was still 18.2 per cent below 2019 levels. Europe, which has been hard hit by a third wave of the virus, performed worst of all the group’s regions with revpar 70 per cent lower year-on-year in the final three months of 2020. IHG said its economy brands had performed best and that its strength in that segment of the industry made it more resilient than rivals. Many economy hotels have been able to stay open to host essential business travellers such as those working in manufacturing and healthcare. “2020 was clearly the most challenging year in our history, with Covid-19 heavily impacting demand across our industry. 2021 has begun with many of these challenges still in place, with more meaningful progress towards recovery for the industry unlikely until later in the year,” Keith Barr, IHG’s chief executive said. The battered hotel group said that it had available liquidity of $2.1bn excluding the repayment of a £600m UK government loan due in March. It is targeting a reduction in costs of $75m this year, while still aiming to invest in the business for growth once borders reopen, it said.
假日酒店和皇冠假日酒店的所有者洲际酒店集团警告说,由于新的冠状病毒菌株迫使各国关闭边界并限制旅行,其历史上 "最具挑战性的一年 "的困难已经延伸到2021年。 周二的业绩显示,截至2020年12月底的一年中,整个富时100集团的收入下降了48%,至24亿美元,而其每股收益从210美分到143美分减少了一半以上。它从税前利润5.42亿美元摇身一变成为亏损2.8亿美元。 它表示,第四季度每间可用客房的收入--酒店业首选的业绩指标--仍远低于历史水平。中国由于对病毒的硬性压制,使得限制条件得到较大放松,表现最好,但所谓的revpar仍比2019年水平低18.2%。 受第三波病毒重创的欧洲,在集团所有地区中表现最差,2020年最后三个月的revpar同比下降70%。 IHG表示,其经济型品牌表现最好,在该领域的优势使其比竞争对手更具弹性。许多经济型酒店一直能够保持开放,以接待必要的商务旅客,如在制造业和医疗保健行业工作的旅客。 "2020年显然是我们历史上最具挑战性的一年,Covid-19严重影响了我们整个行业的需求。2021年伊始,许多挑战依然存在,行业复苏不太可能在今年晚些时候取得更有意义的进展,"IHG首席执行官Keith Barr表示。 这家饱受打击的酒店集团表示,不包括3月到期的6亿英镑英国政府贷款的偿还,其可用流动资金为21亿美元。它说,今年的目标是减少7500万美元的成本,同时仍致力于在边境重新开放后投资业务增长。
HSBC to resume dividends despite 34% profit drop
HSBC will resume paying a dividend despite announcing a 34 per cent drop in annual profits after its global business was hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic. Europe’s largest bank performed slightly above analysts’ expectations in 2020 although it was weighed down by loan losses, reporting profit before tax of $8.8bn, down from $13.4bn the previous year. In the fourth quarter, adjusted profit slid 50 per cent year on year to $2.2bn, just above the $1.8bn estimated by analysts. The bank said on Tuesday that it would start paying a dividend of $0.15 a share after a Bank of England ban on shareholder payouts was partially lifted late last year. “We have had a good start to 2021, and I am cautiously optimistic for the year ahead,” Noel Quinn, HSBC chief executive, said in a statement. Read more here
汇丰银行宣布,在全球业务受到冠状病毒大流行的重创后,年利润下降34%,但仍将恢复派息。 欧洲最大银行2020年业绩略高于分析师预期,不过受贷款损失拖累,报告税前利润为88亿美元,低于上年的134亿美元。 第四季度,调整后利润同比下滑50%至22亿美元,仅高于分析师估计的18亿美元。 该行周二表示,在去年年底英国央行对股东派息的部分禁令被解除后,该行将开始派发每股0.15美元的股息。 "我们在2021年有一个良好的开端,我对未来一年的发展持谨慎乐观的态度,"汇丰银行首席执行官Noel Quinn在一份声明中表示。 阅读更多这里
Indian states impose travel restrictions as cases tick higher
India is facing a wave of domestic travel restrictions as the number of new coronavirus infections begins to climb after several months of decline. The western state of Gujarat has set up border check posts to screen travellers coming by road from neighbouring states, including Maharashtra, and will check arriving passengers at railways stations on inbound trains. The southern state of Karnataka has also sealed many roads and demanded travellers produce negative Covid-19 test results to continue their journeys. Tamil Nadu has also requested negative tests for incoming air passengers from certain states. The patchwork of abrupt restrictions and test requirements highlighted the likelihood of further disruptions in India from the pandemic, as cases have begun to increase after five months of steady decline. The seven-day moving average of India’s daily cases fell to a low of 11,000 on February 12 but has since risen to 12,900, a 16 per cent increase, raising fears that some areas of the country could be poised for surges. Of India’s most recent 1m cases, 34 per cent came from Maharashtra, home to Mumbai, while 22 per cent came from the southern state of Kerala. India has dramatically relaxed controls on most economic activities except for education, which has yet to resume. Most of India’s young school children have not set foot in a classroom since last March.
印度正面临着国内旅行限制的浪潮,因为新的冠状病毒感染人数在经过几个月的下降后开始攀升。 西部的古吉拉特邦已经设立了边境检查站,对从马哈拉施特拉邦等邻国陆路来的旅客进行检查,并将在铁路站对入境列车上的到站旅客进行检查。 南部的卡纳塔克邦也封锁了许多道路,并要求旅客出具阴性的Covid-19检测结果才能继续旅行。泰米尔纳德邦也要求来自某些邦的入境航空旅客出具阴性检测结果。 突如其来的限制和测试要求的拼凑凸显出印度有可能受到疫情的进一步干扰,因为在经历了五个月的稳定下降后,病例开始增加。 印度每日病例的七天移动平均数在2月12日跌至1.1万例的低点,但此后已升至1.29万例,增加了16%,这使人们担心该国一些地区可能会出现激增。 在印度最近的100万病例中,34%来自孟买的所在地马哈拉施特拉邦,22%来自南部的喀拉拉邦。 除教育尚未恢复外,印度已大幅放松了对大多数经济活动的控制。自去年3月以来,印度的大多数年轻学童都没有踏进教室。
Headteachers warn of delay to full reopening of England’s schools
Headteachers have warned parents to expect a delay to the full return of secondary schools in England until the third week of March, as they implement government plans to test all pupils for coronavirus before returning to the classroom. Secondary and college students will have to produce at least one negative coronavirus test from March 8 before being allowed back into classes, under the plan published on Monday. Each pupil will have three tests at school before moving to twice-weekly home tests. Gavin Williamson, education secretary, said this would “reassure families and education staff” that extra measures were in place to ensure a safe return to schools. Primary school pupils will not be tested. Read more here
校长们警告家长们,预计英格兰的中学将推迟到3月的第三周才会全面返校,因为他们将实施政府计划,在所有学生返校上课前对他们进行冠状病毒检测。 根据周一公布的计划,从3月8日起,中学生和大学生将必须出示至少一份阴性的冠状病毒检测报告,才能获准回校上课。每个学生将在学校进行三次测试,然后转为每周两次的家庭测试。 教育部长加文-威廉姆森说,这将 "让家庭和教育工作者放心",采取额外措施确保安全返校。小学生将不会接受测试。 阅读更多这里
More than 40,000 sign up for vaccinations in Hong Kong
Carrie Lam, Hong Kong’s leader, said more than 40,000 people had already signed up for the city’s Covid-19 vaccination programme as she batted away rumours swirling around the jab she received. Lam said 42,000 people had registered to receive the mainland Chinese-produced Sinovac vaccination in the nine hours since registrations began. Hong Kong’s chief executive rebuffed online rumours that she and the city’s top officials had not received the Sinovac jab on Monday afternoon and had instead received a different inoculation, explaining that this highlighted the dangerous nature of misinformation. “We have to fight against smearing and untruthful reports in the community,” Lam said, adding that providing the public with information on the programme was vital for its success.
香港领导人林郑月娥说,已经有超过4万人报名参加该市的华威19疫苗接种计划,她击退了围绕她接受的注射的谣言。 林郑月娥说,自登记开始后的9个小时内,已有4.2万人登记接种中国大陆生产的华卫疫苗。 香港行政长官驳斥了网上关于她和该市高官周一下午没有接受华锐疫苗注射,而是接受了另一种接种的传言,并解释说,这凸显了误传的危险性。 "我们必须与社会上的抹黑和不实报道作斗争,"林志玲说,并补充说,向公众提供有关该计划的信息对其成功至关重要。
Asia stocks mixed after US tech shares slide
Asian shares were mixed after a rough day on Wall Street, where US technology stocks tumbled in the face of rising inflation expectations. South Korea’s tech-focused Kospi fell 0.5 per cent on Tuesday, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.3 per cent and China’s CSI 300 index of Shanghai-and Shenzhen-listed stocks climbed 0.2 per cent. Japan’s market was closed for a national holiday. The Chinese stock benchmark suffered its biggest drop in more than six months on Monday over concerns that the country’s rapid recovery from the pandemic could bring on quicker removal of support for asset prices. On Wall Street on Monday, the S&P 500 shed 0.8 per cent, while the tech-centric Nasdaq Composite tumbled 2.5 per cent. Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google parent Alphabet all fell in what some investors suggested was the beginning of an overdue correction. A sell-off in US government bonds, returns on which are undermined by inflation, picked up on Monday, with the 10-year US Treasury yield, which moves inversely to price, rose 0.03 percentage points, to 1.37 per cent. That helped undermine US equities, as low long-term interest rates boost the value of companies’ future cash flows. With Japan on Holiday treasuries were not trading in Asia on Monday, delaying any further moves by yields until the European open. Investors will also be scrutinising Fed chair Jay Powell’s testimony to Congressional committees on Wednesday for any hint on whether rising inflation could push the Federal Reserve to end ultra-loose monetary policy. “The reality today is that inflation is a risk – core government bond yields are rising as markets reprice for better future growth”, said Kerry Craig, a global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management. “But some inflation may not be a bad thing, and the recovery has a long way to go before it becomes a problem.” Oil prices continued to rise, with Brent crude, the global benchmark, up 1.5 per cent at $66.24 a barrel. US marker West Texas Intermediate rose 1.4 per cent to $62.59.
在华尔街经历了艰难的一天后,亚洲股市涨跌不一,其中美国科技股在通胀预期上升的情况下暴跌。 韩国科技股Kospi周二下跌0.5%,香港恒生指数上涨0.3%,中国沪深上市股票沪深300指数上涨0.2%。日本市场因国庆节休市。 中国股票基准指数周一遭遇六个多月来最大跌幅,因担心中国从疫情中的快速复苏可能会给资产价格带来更快的支撑消除。 周一华尔街,S&P 500指数下跌0.8%,而以科技为核心的纳斯达克综合指数下跌2.5%。脸书、亚马逊、苹果、Netflix和谷歌母公司Alphabet均下跌,一些投资者认为这是逾期修正的开始。 美国政府债券的回报率受到通胀的破坏,周一美国政府债券的抛售有所回升,与价格走势相反的10年期美国国债收益率上涨0.03个百分点,至1.37%。这有助于打压美国股市,因为长期利率偏低提升了公司未来现金流的价值。 由于日本放假,国债周一在亚洲没有交易,将收益率的进一步走势推迟到欧洲开盘前。 投资者还将仔细研究美联储主席鲍威尔周三在国会委员会的证词,以寻找任何关于通胀上升是否会推动美联储结束超宽松货币政策的暗示。 "如今的现实是,通胀是一种风险--核心政府债券收益率正在上升,因为市场为未来更好的增长重新定价",摩根资产管理公司全球市场策略师Kerry Craig表示。"但一些通胀可能不是坏事,在成为问题之前,复苏还有很长的路要走"。 油价继续上涨,全球基准布伦特原油上涨1.5%,报66.24美元/桶。美标西德克萨斯中质油涨1.4%,报62.59美元。
New US infections drop to 4-month low
The US on Monday reported its smallest daily increase in new coronavirus cases in more than four months, continuing recent glimmers of hope for the country's management of the pandemic. States reported an additional 52,530 infections, down from 58,702 on Sunday, according to Covid Tracking Project. It was the smallest one-day increase in cases since October 18. Over the past week, the US has averaged 64,034 new cases a day, which is the lowest the rate since late October. This represents a drop of 74 per cent from a peak rate in early January of more than 247,000 cases a day. However, Rochelle Walensky, director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, cautioned at the White House's coronavirus response briefing on Monday afternoon that while the average has been declining for the past five weeks, it is still "high" and on par with the summer surge when states in the sunbelt were among the most afflicted. Casting a shadow over Monday's figures, the US death toll topped 500,000 for the first time, according to Johns Hopkins University. Covid Tracking Project, whose data the Financial Times use for analysis, put the death toll at 490,382. "Since our dataset uses [New York State] reported deaths which does not include the more than 8,000 deaths that are reported by [New York City], our total death count is lagging behind other trackers that marked 500k deaths today," Covid Tracking Project said in a Twitter message, adding that it recognised coronavirus deaths in the US "are an undercount". Authorities on Monday attributed a further 1,235 deaths to coronavirus, the smallest one-day increase in seven days. The number of patients currently hospitalised in the US with coronavirus dropped to 55,403, the lowest level since early November. Figures on Monday tend to be lower than other days of the week due to weekend delays in reporting. Severe winter weather may also still be having a dampening effect on data from states due to closures of testing and vaccination sites and power outages.
美国周一报告了四个多月来冠状病毒新病例的最小日增幅,延续了近期该国管理疫情的希望之光。 根据Covid追踪项目,各州报告新增感染人数为52,530人,低于周日的58,702人。这是自10月18日以来病例的最小单日增幅。 过去一周,美国平均每天新增病例64,034例,这是自10月下旬以来的最低速率。这比1月初每天超过24.7万例的高峰率下降了74%。 不过,美国疾病控制和预防中心主任Rochelle Walensky周一下午在白宫的冠状病毒应对通报会上提醒说,虽然过去五周的平均水平一直在下降,但仍然 "高居不下",与夏季激增时阳光地带各州的发病率相当。 根据约翰-霍普金斯大学的数据,美国死亡人数首次突破50万,给周一的数据蒙上了一层阴影。金融时报》使用其数据进行分析的Covid跟踪项目将死亡人数定为490,382人。 "由于我们的数据集使用城市,我们的总死亡人数落后于其他跟踪器,这些跟踪器今天标记了50万死亡人数,"Covid跟踪项目在Twitter消息中说,并补充说,它承认冠状病毒在美国的死亡人数 "是一个低估"。 当局周一将另外1235人的死亡归咎于冠状病毒,这是7天来最小的单日增幅。 美国目前因冠状病毒住院的病人数量降至55,403人,是11月初以来的最低水平。 由于周末的报告延迟,周一的数字往往低于一周的其他日子。恶劣的冬季天气也可能仍对各州的数据产生抑制作用,原因是检测和疫苗接种点关闭以及停电。
Covid vaccines slash risk of infection, illness and death, UK studies find
Vaccination against coronavirus provides high levels of protection against Covid-19 infection, illness and death, according to three UK studies released on Monday that provide scientific support for the government’s road map out of lockdown. The first, carried out in Scotland, found that the Covid-19 vaccination campaign led to a “very substantial” drop in serious illness across all adult age groups. It is the clearest evidence yet that single doses of coronavirus jabs can significantly reduce the risk of hospitalisation, even among the elderly. Two other studies released by Public Health England echo findings released last week by scientists in Israel where vaccination has been even faster than in the UK. PHE scientists reported that the BioNTech/Pfizer vaccine reduced the risk of infection by more than 70 per cent three weeks after the first jab, rising to 85 per cent after the second dose. Despite the promising news, the government also released studies by modellers at Imperial College London and Warwick university that indicated that another 30,000 people could die in the UK from Covid-19 before the end of June, based on the current vaccination rate and speed of lockdown easing. Read more here
根据周一发布的三项英国研究,接种冠状病毒疫苗可提供高水平的保护,防止Covid-19感染、疾病和死亡,为政府摆脱封锁的路线图提供科学支持。 第一项研究在苏格兰进行,发现Covid-19疫苗接种活动导致所有成人年龄组的严重疾病 "非常可观 "的下降。这是迄今为止最明确的证据,证明单剂量的冠状病毒注射可以显著降低住院风险,即使在老年人中也是如此。 英格兰公共卫生局发布的另外两项研究与上周以色列科学家发布的调查结果相呼应,以色列的疫苗接种速度甚至比英国更快。PHE科学家报告说,BioNTech/Pfizer疫苗在第一次注射后三周内将感染风险降低了70%以上,第二次注射后上升到85%。 尽管有希望的消息,政府还公布了伦敦帝国理工学院和华威大学的建模人员的研究报告,指出根据目前的疫苗接种率和封锁放松的速度,在6月底之前,英国还有3万人可能死于Covid-19。 Read more here
Asia-Pacific stocks fall after Wall Street tumble
Asia-Pacific equities retreated on Tuesday after US stocks fell amid rising inflation expectations. The Kospi in South Korea fell 0.7 per cent and the S&P/ASX 200 in Australia dipped 0.2 per cent. Japanese markets are closed for the emperor’s birthday. Overnight in the US, the technology-focused Nasdaq Composite ended 2.5 per cent lower while the S&P 500 fell 0.8 per cent. Those moves came as a sell-off in US government bonds continued. “The nascent sparks of inflation we’ve seen recently and the corresponding sell-off in bond prices really reflects increasing positivity around the economic outlook,” said Kerry Craig, global market strategist, JPMorgan Asset Management. “A steepening yield curve usually helps to bolster value-orientated and cyclical sectors of the equity market.” S&P 500 futures were flat.
在美股因通胀预期上升而下跌后,亚太股市周二回落。 韩国Kospi指数下跌0.7%,澳大利亚S&P/ASX 200指数下跌0.2%。日本市场因天皇生日休市。 隔夜在美国,以科技为重点的纳斯达克综合指数收盘下跌2.5%,S&P 500指数下跌0.8%。这些举动是在美国政府债券继续遭到抛售的情况下发生的。 "我们最近看到的通货膨胀的雏形以及相应的债券价格抛售确实反映出围绕经济前景的积极性越来越高,"摩根资产管理公司全球市场策略师Kerry Craig表示。"收益率曲线的陡峭化通常有助于支撑股票市场中以价值为导向和周期性的板块。" S&P 500指数期货持平。
WHO agrees to compensation for Covax vaccine side effects
People in certain countries who experience serious side effects from Covid-19 vaccines via the Covax programme are eligible for compensation under a new deal signed by the World Health Organization. The agreement will allow individuals from Covax's Advance Market Commitment-eligible countries, a group of 92 low-and-middle-income economies, which experience "rare but serious adverse events" associated with vaccines distributed by the programme — the global initiative to supply shots to developing countries — to seek compensation. "This no-fault compensation mechanism helps to ensure that people in AMC-eligible countries and economies can benefit from the cutting-edge science that has delivered Covid-19 vaccines in record time," Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO director-general said. The deal — inked by WHO and US-based risk management services provider ESIS to administer the programme on behalf of Covax — is the first and only vaccine injury compensation mechanism. The programme will offer people "a fast, fair, robust and transparent process" for claims. The WHO said by providing the "no-fault lump-sum compensation" the Covax programme aims to reduce the need for recourse to the law courts. The mechanism, which will run until June 30 2022, will initially be financed through a levy charged on doses distributed through the Covax facility. The WHO expects about $105m in initial funds to be available for payments under the programme. The WHO is also working with Chubb to secure insurance coverage for the programme. The Covax facility aims to deliver at least 2bn doses by the end of the year, including 1.3bn to the 92 low- and middle-income economies.
根据世界卫生组织签署的一项新协议,某些国家通过Covax方案接种Covid-19疫苗出现严重副作用的人有资格获得赔偿。 该协议将允许来自Covax预先市场承诺合格国家(由92个低收入和中等收入经济体组成)的个人,在经历与该计划(向发展中国家供应疫苗的全球倡议)分发的疫苗相关的 "罕见但严重的不良事件 "后,寻求赔偿。 "这种无过错补偿机制有助于确保符合AMC资格的国家和经济体的人们能够从以创纪录的时间交付Covid-19疫苗的尖端科学中受益,"世卫组织总干事Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus说。 世卫组织和总部设在美国的风险管理服务提供商ESIS签署了协议,代表Covax管理该计划,这是第一个也是唯一一个疫苗伤害补偿机制。 该计划将为人们提供 "快速、公平、稳健和透明的索赔程序"。世卫组织表示,通过提供 "无过错的一次性补偿",Covax计划旨在减少诉诸法院的需要。 该机制将持续到2022年6月30日,最初将通过对通过Covax设施分发的剂量收取的税款来资助。 世卫组织预计,该方案下将有约1.05亿美元的初始资金用于支付。世卫组织还在与Chubb合作,以确保该方案的保险范围。 Covax设施的目标是在年底前提供至少20亿剂量,包括向92个中低收入经济体提供13亿剂量。



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